In a future power system, it is expected that hydropower will play a more important role in balancing the power system. It will also be operated in a more extreme way, in that, for example, it must run at maximum production more often, or that the water reservoirs are emptied more often.
Thus, it becomes more important to model all the physical relationships that limit the flexibility of the system as correctly as possible. In ProdRisk, for example, you cannot model that the water flow in a tunnel is dependent on pressure head or that there are wear and tear costs associated with starting and stopping a hydropower unit.
The new simulator can do something about this.
The simulator takes the value of the water from ProdRisk and simulates the operation week by week using a much more detailed model (SHOP). The advantage is that it is more correct in relation to the actual conditions in the power system, thus it shows a more realistic forecast. ProdRisk and SHOP are existing models designed for different areas of use. The simulator combines the best features of these models in a new tool designed specifically for input calculations for investment analyses.
The researchers will now further develop the prototype, among other things, with a view to taking income from capacity markets into account.