New Model Predicts If Fish Swim Into Hydropower Turbines

Fish don’t always follow the current! Using statistics and machine learning, we can predict their movements under different conditions—and propose effective measures to prevent turbine-related deaths.

Traditionally, it has been assumed that fish follow the main river current, but research shows that this is not always the case.
Now, Norwegian researchers have developed a model that uses statistical methods to predict fish movements under various flow conditions.
–  We have created a model that can accurately predict where salmon smolt will move in the river, says researcher Kim Magnus Bærum, at the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA).
Together with colleagues, he has developed the model based on studies of salmon smolt in the Mandal and Orkla rivers. It was recently published here. 

– The model has the potential to become a user-friendly and practical tool for the hydropower industry,” says NINA researcher Ana T. Silva, who is highly experienced within the field of technical solutions for safe upstream and downstream fish migration.

The model now functions as a general tool for predicting the choices smolt make based on the flow conditions they experience.
–  We can simulate how fish will move when water flow changes in different rivers and calculate how many fish risk being killed in the turbine under given conditions, Bærum explains.
In the future, they aim to further develop the model to include factors beyond just hydraulics to create more realistic simulations.

A Useful Tool for Designing Fish Protection Measures

The model also allows for calculations of how both existing and new river installations may affect fish.

– This is useful for designing and implementing measures that most effectively reduce harm to salmon smolt, says Silva.

The project is funded by NINA and builds on results from the SafePass project. It is also connected to the research in the FishPath project.

Read the article: Predicting fine-scale downstream migratory movement of Atlantic salmon smolt (Salmo salar) in front of a hydropower plant | Scientific Reports

Contact:

Kim Magnus Bærum
Ana T. Silva